Posts Tagged ‘trends’

Distilling the Perspective of Prediction

Tuesday, January 3rd, 2012

image of Old Testament prophet, painting, via MormonInfo.orgIts the new year, and therefore time to hear and wade through all of the predictions for the coming year(s) in mobile. Well, there are some which are better than others, and definitely a means of weeding though it all. Here’s a snippet towards how I tend to walk through these statements:

I was passed a link via email recently which spoke (lightly) about smartphones in the coming years. I disagreed with the sentiment that it was a worthwhile prediction as the article-interview left no context behind the person’s statement. Still, I think it was a healthy exercise to pay attention to in the coming weeks as many will be predicting much, and there needs to be some way to get through the noise.

This is what was sent to me:
Marc Andreessen [speaks to CNet] about what the major technology trend(s) will be in 2012 & beyond. In a nutshell, it boils down to smartphones.

Read the rest of Distilling the Perspective of Prediction at Blog.AntoineRJWright.

Takeaways:

  • Anything that’s predicted in respect to technology can be easily fact-checked against news, stats, and other analysts in that position
  • Be wary of biases towards predicting what will/won’t come next. Bias is always present, sometimes its more influential than some would have you believe
  • Pull a Jeremiah 23 and just wait – if the word comes to pass, then observe them for future prognostigations; if not, don’t be ashamed to stop listening to them – I wouldn’t recommend throwing stones unless you have your ducks in a row

Now, that’s all easy to say when you have time to wade through the news, fact-check and such, but “who has time for all of that?” I would admonish you to be just as much a Berean in terms of news and views as you are of the Scriptures. Those following your activites in this life would gain much from your ability to take a stance and walk your way through understanding it.

 

IBM’s 5 in 5 and Future Technological Disruptions Effecting Mobile Ministry

Wednesday, December 28th, 2011

It is that time of the year when predictions, resolutions, and trends-spotting makes the headline news. At the time of writing, I’m not sure that we’ll do too much (more) prophecying about mobile in ministry, but we will jump in with some of those putting forth some credible commentary towards activities, challenges, and advancements to come.

In this set of predictions, IBM looks at some technologies which are (definitely in development/testing now) which may play major roles in a majority of areas of society as we move foward in the next five years. This series, 5 in 5 has been done previously, and certainly deserves a look backward to see how accurate these proponents of a smarter planet have been in their views:

View all of the 5 in 5 videos on the IBM YouTube Channel

There are five aspects of technological/cultural change being talked about with 5 in 5:

  • Energy: People power will come to life
  • Security: You will never need a password again
  • Mind reading: Not just science fiction any more
  • Analytics: Junk mail will become priority mail
  • Access: Mobile is closing the Digital Divide

Read about these through the press release and blog posts from IBM which explain each of these in detail.

I’ve got my debates about the closing of the digital divide (it does, and then it doesn’t when actual costs are looked at), and think that we are well entrenched towards an analytical-driven future where recommendation engines and security becomes a more accepted norm of being in digital-enhanced spaced. The mind-reading is happening in kit projects now, that part will get fun (especially as AI and adaptive computing models become the norm).

I do wonder about the lack of seeing anything in these in respect to language and literacy, as I do think that we are getting into a time when language is no longer a barrier if connectivity is addressed (real-time, passive, and active translation protocols between service points). That’s just me though. I’m all aboard the energy idea (see my thoughts on kinetic energy for mobile accessories at Nokia’s Ideas Project). We definitely need to ditch the personal dependence on grid energy infrastructure, and make it more economical and environmentally sustainable in industrial applications. These are all addressable tennants of any mobile ministry efforts, and it would be nice to see this alongside other goals for mobile ministry.

What about you? Got thoughts on 5 in 5? You can also join in the global conversation about 5 in 5 via the following channels:

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts, and seeing just how you see internet/mobile ministry efforts going forward around and through these changes.

 

Global Mobile Industry – First Half 2011 Assessment by Chetan Sharma

Thursday, July 7th, 2011

…In Q1 2011, US became the first major market to exceed the 50% mark in smartphone sales. The global figure stands at approximately 26%. Some operators expect 90% of their devices sales to be smartphones by the end of the year. In terms of the actual smartphone penetration, we expect the US market to eclipse the 50% mark in 2012.

China leads in the number of subs but US dominates in both total and data revenue. A number of emerging nations are now in top 10 – Brazil, India, Russia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico while once dominant – Korea, UK, Italy, Germany have dropped off or slipped in rankings.

The number of mobile operators with more than $1B in data revenues will increase to 47 in 2011. This number was only at 13 in 2005.

Japan continues to be the leader in mobile data with NTT DoCoMo, KDDI, and Softbank Japan ahead of the pack in terms of mobile data revenue and data as a % of total ARPU. In 2011, it became the first major market to have more than 50% of its mobile revenue from data services. Next, Australia and the US have made good inroads in the last two years. In fact, if we look at the overall data revenue, US is much further ahead than any nation due to the size of the market.

While India has the highest subscriber growth rate in the world right now, the revenue generating opportunity remain down right anemic compared to other major markets with average dropping down to $3.50 in overall ARPU. Even with significant subscriber base, there is going to be a general lack of opportunity in the market for the next couple of years relative to other markets…

Read the rest of Chetan Sharma’s Global Mobile Industry – First Half 2011 Assessment at the website (just a summary) or by downloading the PDF (56pgs).

You can also catch up with Chetan Sharma and many others at the upcoming Mobile Future Forward conference.

 

The Homework of Visionaries and Ministers (Part 2)

Friday, October 29th, 2010

Continued from Part 1

These views (The Internet Services Disruption and Dawn of a New Day) of technology then take us back to this understanding – or growing body of knowledge – to what mobile ministry is and how it fits in this conversation of visionaries and ministers. Mobile ministry is a genre of a genre. And in many respects its a term that means something to those who still see computing as a noun rather than a verb. For its brief history, mobile ministry has been characterized by the communication media (7th mass media) and the application/layer of the Gospel message on top of that media in order to further evangelize and disciple others into an understanding of the Christian faith.

It can and should be seen differently. Mobile as a technology presumes personal connections, micro-interactions, macro-infrastructure concerns, and an interconnectivity that will soon pull another mass media to the forefront. Mobile as a ministry should therefore pursue those personal connections, chance interactions, and mass elemental/environmental effects which cause us to meet at the result of the Gospel’s implication – John 17:20-26.

And so I go back to that MMM Mobile Experiment and those lessons learned, those lessons that weren’t technological, but spiritual. Where was the application of the Gospel? There was innovation, but where was that innovation centered on the relevant approaches to community advancement which spoke towards characteristics we are familiar with in the history of the faith? It wasn’t there, and for that viewpoint, mobile ministry took a backseat to a vision that while great, just wasn’t framed right.

The homework of a visionary is then quite clear – where is the framing for the vision? Is it based in the reality of what is needed right now? Certainly, this is the case for many of us whom are involved in approaches to ministry and media where there are practical needs such as shoe-string budgets for multimedia-needs/wants. There are those who are in missional fields where the needs are to serve or record certain types of content, but there is no understanding of the cultural dos and don’ts towards what should and should not be transmitted, even if we are talking about the experience of the Gospel.

And then there’s that homework that’s based on what will be needed? What are the impending implications of the various economic and environmental issues which will mean that we have to be better educated/equipped to handle multiple streams of thought (resources, languages, core utilities, etc.). How does the visionary teach “go forward” when the resource says “make best with the bread you have today.” In other words, you have to be both disruptive and directive at the same time – and do so while crafting an understanding around what is understood and what is accepted about those things digital and those things traditionally assumed as spiritual (analog).

To the minister/ministry who is taking a look at the digital landscape and wondering what’s next, your assignment is nearly as simple as Paul’s statement in Romans 12:2 – with the context of going digital (active, participant) from digital/analog (passive, responsive, reactant) in our response to the needs of the culture ability to hear the Gospel that we present. It is more than just having the understanding of the silo of mobile or web, it is taking our approach from nouns to verbs. When computing becomes a verb, we start looking at how it connects and adds relevant value to our lives. In the same view, mobile ministry as a verb looks and acts a lot different than just adding a mobile phone or snippet content to an effort. Yes, this is part of it, and certainly such formatting of hardware, software, and services breaks down the ability to change the applied tense of the word we are using. Yet it is a step beyond – and that step takes a change to how we behave towards the history of ministry.

The Christian living in today’s context sees no difference between online and offline – computing is a verb. It is either engaging their abilities to touch the world with the Spirit of God, or hindering their ability to see clearly the Body in motion they heard about which provoked their faith at the start. And while the context of how someone gets digital might be different, mobile shows us that the disruption that is come to technology and culture is meant to bring the kind of light to all people – at least to all people that can be served digitally, we need to walk to the rest – the kind of light which is going to be a fundamental change to them because as the object of the Spirit, the tech will point.

Also published via Google Docs for comments/discussion

 

The Future of Bible Software

Friday, August 20th, 2010
2010 Future Trends Series: Bible SoftwareBible Publishing | Physical Bibles

It was a lot of years ago, but MMM rightly predicted and noted how Bible apps were going to go mobile and why this was a suitable area for companies and developers in this space to pay attention to. Now, let’s take our gaze to the future a bit, what could be next?

Know Your Past

The old paradigm was simple: developers licensed content from publishers; then crafted a user interface and added varying degrees of value to that content offering. This was usually done by creating a reader” to which this specifically licensed content, and the value-added abilities were wrapped into.

This worked well even in the beginning stages of the Internet. With smaller pipes, and few persons able to afford what amounted to a “extended licensed” content (license went from publishers to developer, and then content was made available to the user), it made sense that connected features (email, notes, send to blog, etc.) would appear also within these “readers.”

PDAs and Mobile Pioneering

Then we had those PDAs. Applications followed the PC paradigm of use by offering a reader and downloadable content. Some of these applications would even sync with desktop counterparts so that bookmarks or notes could be shared (remember, initially PDAs weren’t wireless-data capable except for a few isolated and very expensive models).

From PDAs we started to see the Nokia Communicators and Palm Treos of the world start moving users to this idea of constant connectivity. Bible apps for mobiles started to adapt – first in general user interface design, and then slowly in the adoption of mobile/web features.

From Mobile Boom to Realizations

Then came the boom known as iPhone, and this greater acceptance that people were more apt to want to read their Bible or have Biblical content on their devices before consulting a desktop, and even a dedicated application. An explosion of mobile websites and mobile apps for iOS, Android, Symbian, Blackberry, webOS, and Windows Mobile showered the mainstream marketplace. For most it seemed that this model pioneered with having a reader app that people would read licensed content would work.

But, something happened as data became looked at as more than just accessible anytime. A type of user workflow began to rise to the surface. It wasn’t so much that people were not using their desktop Bible readers and websites, but they no longer were using these screens in isolation from their mobile screens. Searches, notes, and bookmarks needed to appear on all of these screen equally, without the intervening of a syncing conduit (after all, everything was connected to the web already). These workflows and behaviors weren’t really new, but the abilities of the technology along with the flexibility of the delivery conduit made these behaviors easier to see and adopt.

The understanding and shaping of Biblical data even began changing. What was once understood on the print side as glyphs and manuscripts became chopped and reorganized alongside Unicode languages, metadata schemes, database types, and even the constraints of physical devices (displays, inputs, etc.) and their presentation layers.

To add to the fun, people also embarked on changes of their own. Now, Bible reading wasn’t just a personal affair driven by devotions and reading plans, the idea of going social set in. Doing more with your Bible included engaging within virtual communities, affixing a Biblical context to social activities. The Bible and biblical data was just as much about the devices and data as it was the behaviors and actions of people once they assimilated it. And so instead of just a group of trained (technically and linguistically) users as the primary userbase, we started to see various communities arise as accessible user types, collecting more around the social actions, but using software and services in a shared manner (for ex., YouVersion and Facebook communities).

So What’s the Future to Behold

A common theme emerges when you look back at this summarized history of Bible software, we go from technical abilities, to social activities, to new technical abilities, to richer social activities. What is to be gained from biblical software now then, it does seem as if all that’s left is to live it, right?

I can see a few distinct software changes coming to biblical software and the faith community at large. On the software side, we should begin to see more consolidation in terms of the larger companies in this space. Don’t be surprised for more announcements similar to the one forged with Zondervan Publishing and Olive Tree. It makes a lot of sense for publishers and software houses to align their resources as they are building and mining on the same data.

Look for a few companies to take an approach similar to Logos and their Biblia.API project. The benefit of an API is that you can stack data into new kinds of applications or services. For example, if you are a missionary who lives in your car (so to speak), it would make a lot of sense to map your GPS device’s POI database to passages you might have preached or privately held for devotions. Imagine possibilities also where augmented reality services allow you to embed a Scripture on a virtual location, but you are able to interact with it in the physical world. These and other possibilities are doable.

Also, we should expect the loosening of English as the primary language of our Biblical communities. Even as I write this, there are more mobile web users in China alone than there is the total population of persons in the US. English definitely served as the world’s language when there was only the G7. There’s the G20 now, and you can bet that all languages will have to be given space on the world’s stage for communication and interaction.

More of this thinking has been expounded in our post about trends coming in the next 10 years (also, see presentation deck).

Imagine This

Imagine this, a future Bible software application isn’t an application at all, but a validation key brokered between you, the developer who holds the API, and the publisher who owns the content. Your license enables you to read the content via whatever reader or browser you choose, and you have a limited license to share it with certain people or through specific regions. The developer, as part of their service agreement with you, gives you access to a panel where you can purchase additional API capabilities or upload your own contributions. And the publisher also has a panel, to which you can offer feedback, purchase additional licenses, and view the analytical data that goes into their marketing and research efforts.

In my opinion, we aren’t that far off from this happening. Will you as a user, developer, or publisher be ready to make the next change in offering or engaging with your Bible/biblical software. The idea of owning content, managing apps, and even browsing  is changing. What I describe might not be the future realized, but it does point to what are some of the likely outcomes.

For those of you invested in the future of Bible software, I hope this helps to address your current plans for what’s next.