Posts Tagged ‘Tomi Ahonen’

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Where Is Your View on Mobile

Monday, February 13th, 2012

We get statements often when talking about MMM that people just don’t look at mobile in this light, but that it’s one that now they have to consider. You can’t blame this approach, much of our time is spent amongst people who live in such a way that faith and ethics plays an active role into most areas of their lives. That said, organizations always move slower than individuals, and so making a perception change on that level is a bit harder to broker. Then again, we do have folks like Tomi Ahonen, who tends to speak right to the heart of the matter for organizations:

…Despite the growing prevalence of mobile devices, Ahonen warns that the future isn’t going to be about mobile only, but about its role in cross-platform interactions. He says television, radio and other media won’t die, but that mobile will continue to grow as a complementary media channel that does other things like payments.

“US jewellers Tiffany’s e-commerce website wasn’t optimised for mobile. After optimising it, sales grew 125% from the website,” says Ahonen. He says this proves there isn’t going to be “one Internet”.

“The PC Web needs to be PC-optimised, the mobile needs to be mobile-optimised.”

Ahonen says in Japan all websites are designed for mobile first and that it should be the same in Africa.

In another example of the potential of mobile, Ahonen says in China mobile newspapers have converted 39% of their readers to pay for MMS news headlines. “’Tomorrow’s headlines today’ is the selling point.” China Mobile has 40m paying users on SMS- and MMS-based twice-daily headline services of branded newspapers’ headlines…

Kind of blunt, and frankly speaking, probably a bit further out there than most want to plan and work towards. Still, the facts about mobile are clear, and the implications of such a change on several aspects of society just can’t be ignored. We either see mobile for what it is, and what it will be; or, we wither under it hoping for some other kind of savior to communications and opportunity to live this faith we espouse towards.

 

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Two Looks at the Context/Term ‘Advanced Mobile’

Friday, January 6th, 2012

Bubble_Chart_Top10_LargestTAMs, FlurryInitially, this post mentioned just the research and rankings by Tomi Ahonen; a later publication granted similar context with similar and different conclusions which combined with Ahonen’s insights grants considerable understanding towards current and future contexts of mobile on country levels. Therefore both of these are presented in a single post for relevance and compaative analysis.

Tomi Ahonen’s Ranking of Most Advanced Mobile Markets (by Country)
Tomi Ahonen (by virtue of his consultancy) tends to have all kinds of information which offer some measure of contextual relevance towards understanding mobile perspectices and trends. One of those that tends to cause all kinds of neat conversation has to do with his ranking of countries towards how advanced they are. He’s done this tanking for a few years (within his publications) and now offers this ranking again. Its not the most perfect (see the methodology quoted after the numbers, but should offer clear enough reasoning why approaching mobile from a “let’s evangelize the whole world at once approach” isn’t the best strategy.

Here’s his ranking (reformatted in a cleaner table layout):

Rank (2010) Country Index (%)
1 (1) Japan 91
2 (2) South Korea 89
3 (6T) Singapore 84
4 (3) Italy 83
5 (6T) Finland 82
6T (9) Sweden 81
6T (4T) Taiwan 81
8 (4T) Austria 80
9 (14) Hong Kong 79
10 (10T) Australia 78
11 (8) Israel 77
12 (10T) UK 76
13T (16T) Denmark 75
13T (15) Norway 75
13T (12) Spain 75
16 (22) UAE 73
17 (19) USA 72
18 (13) Ireland 71
19 (18) Netherlands 70
20 (16T) Germany 69

…This index is as far as I know, the only international comparative table that uses all the major metrics for the industry as inputs – ie I use the mobile phone penetration rate per capita, the migration rate to 3G networks, the adoption ie usage of mobile data (which typically is the adoption rate of SMS text messaging in most markets) and the measure of how advanced the handsets are in that country (which in most cases is the adoption rate of smartphones)…

*Emphasis ours

Read the rest of Tomi’s 2011 Mobile Phone Index Ranking posting.

Flurry’s Analysis of the Installed Base of Users for iOS and Android Devices
One of the most popular (and heard) metrics for ascertaining the relevance of mobile is to take a look at sales and activations numbers. And certainly these do have some redeeming value when looking at the “right now” action that is happening with mobile. However, concentrating on sales and activations misses the most signifiant statistic – how many devices are being used right now? And if there is only a percentage of those total sales or activations being used, what others kinds of information does this installed base give us that might better allow us to see the actual use of mobile, and the opportunities which might lie for mobile/mobile ministry endeavors?

The largest take on installed base research that I’ve seen to date seems to be this work compiled and recently published by Flurry.

Flurry validates their research by using several data points, most of which are available publically, and then cross-linking that against their metrics gained from the 140,000 applications which utilize their analytics software/services. Here’s a snippet of their report:

…Because this chart measures future potential, TAMs are much larger relative to active user bases.  The result, visually, is a lot more “light blue.”  Many of the world’s largest countries have largely un-penetrated markets, primarily due to standards of living (emerging markets) or increased competition for consumers’ disposable income (developed markets).  In either case, the TAM is there, but the adoption hasn’t yet occurred.  So, many of these markets are future bets with the time of maturity somewhat variable and unknown.  In this chart, the U.S. has both the largest current installed base and market upside.  Again, this is because of its unique, well-penetrated and large, affluent population.  Next China, given its very large population (1.3 billion), along with a growing middle class who has already begun adopting smart devices, has the world’s second largest market potential.  In comparison, even though India has the world’s second largest population (1.2 billion), its TAM is much smaller than China’s because of India’s very low standard of living.  The result is that, even though its total population is not far behind China’s, its total addressable market is.  Further, the adoption of smartphones and tablets among its TAM has been small.  Finally, Japan, the world’s fourth largest market, has a lot of upside given light penetration of iOS and Anroid devices against its large, addressable market..

Read the entire iOS/Android Installed Base report from Flurry

Takeaways/Conclusions
We titled this post Two Looks at the Context/Term ‘Advanced Mobile’ because the phrase finds itself often within conversations about mobile/mobile ministry. Being advanced is indeed one part functionality (Ahonen) and another part current/analyized use (Flurry). Aiming devices, services, and experiences to a mobile goal means that you have to keep in mind not just the trends (Ahonen) but also what’s happening that’s addressable. Aiming for smartphone users in the US makes sense because of the shape and prospects of the market. Using the same approach in Angola might not be a good bet. The context of what’s advanced mobility there or elsewhere has to seen in light of what’s actually happening.

Given the information above, shaping your mobile strategy for 2012 and beyond should be a good bit clearer.

 

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SMS the Most Used Mobile Phone Feature

Tuesday, December 27th, 2011

image of MMS from ShutterstockKeeping with yesterday’s meme about SMS (text messaging), we want to highlight some confirmed information care of Tomi Ahonen and his consulting services. I’ll let the work speak for itself:

That changed this week, as we received the brand new Ofcom study of international telecoms markets. They surveyed 5,636 consumers in six major countries on three continents and part of the usage survey were questions ‘do you use SMS on your mobile phone’ and ‘do you use voice calls on your mobile phone’ And for the first time we have solid comparable measurements.

The countries are all in the ‘Industrialized World’ and are Australia, France, Germany, Italy, the UK and the USA. They found SMS usage levels from a low of 64% in the USA to a high of 86% in Australia. They also found voice calls ranging from a low of 68% in Italy to a high of 80% in Germany. The population-weighed average of the six countries gives an average SMS usage level of 71.52% for SMS, vs 71.48% for voice calls. So these percentages are ‘per capita’ and not ‘per subscription’ by which more often SMS usage levels are reported. The actual human consumer ‘per capita’ measurement is more accurate obviously, as it ignores the phenomenon of multiple subscriptions and multiple phones on the same person. And we have massive news! We have JUST passed the tipping point.

First, on the measurement, if you prefer to use the statistic of ‘per subscriber’ rather than ‘per capita’ – then the subcription-weighed numbers are even more strongly in favor of SMS ie 72.4% vs 71.5%…

Read the rest of We Are Hitting Major Milestone: Time to stop calling it ‘mobile PHONE’ at Communities Dominate Brands.

Read the latest Communications Market Report at the Ofcom website.

Such a study should have some profound implications towards how you pursue efforts in mobile ministry. Not that you should forget your applications, nor that your mobile web efforts are worthless. You should do those, but to gain the best reach (and in some works that I have read in the past, the best response rates for your efforts), text messaging should be a signifying part of your planning.

“But, Antoine. If we do text, then we miss that face-to-face connection. And if we only see their heads down, then how will we know that the message reached them?” Always valid questions, however, these are borne in a sense of you not having control over the message’s end point. If you are fostering culture appropriate communication patterns, or at the worst adjusting to the changes in communication streams across economies and age groups, then this won’t be the problem as you will be able to get the feedback you desire, the face-to-face moments will happen. We are designed to connect to one another, anything that increases the friction to do so (yes, even forced meetings in small groups and social events) will degrade any ability to connect. SMS is such that it offers so little friction, that it flat out works. Add to that how cheap it is for most folks, and you have the activities which broker this report.

Take a look at the companies we list for SMS services, some are platforms, others allow you to build your own solution. Yes, it might take some more work, butch attention, until video (via MMS and web) becomes more normal than not, this is the route towards making your efforts count in less than 160 characters.

 

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Tomi Ahonen Mega-Post on Becoming the Next Millionaire Mogul in Mobile

Wednesday, February 9th, 2011

Tomi Ahonen has been quoted several times on this site as many of his insights have contributed to the understanding and application of mobile technology in the digital faith arena. Suffice to say, when he puts an idea down, it’s worth reading, rereading, and making steps to adjust.

Such is how I feel after having read his latest 20K+ word article about the mega-opportunity in mobile. Thankfully, Ahonen speaks in more than monetary terms. And given the insights he and several others in mobile share, the opportunity in mobile for great gains is just a matter of capitalizing on the opportunity. Here’s a snippet of the article:

MOBILE IS BIGGEST ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY (EVER)

Now, that is a massive statement, isn’t it? I mean, biggest? Ever? But before you jump to your next task on your to-do list, please consider just this fact. One industry on the planet has to be it. All others pretend, but factually, one of the thounsands of industries does truly have to be the biggest economic opportunity of any one time. Earlier on in the past century it was oil. Created the oil barons and billionaire oil sheikhs. Late in the century it was personal computers. Made Bill Gates the wealthiest man on the planet. At any one point in time there is one industry which is the best to be in. (and yes, even if biggest at one point in time, is not guaranteed to be ‘of all time’)

Today that is mobile. Mobile has become a Trillion dollar industry. Not the biggest industry on the planet, but one in a very rare category to pass the Big T of a Trillion. Television is not that big (has never passed half a Trillion dollars in annual revenues). Computers are not that big. Radio is not that big. The internet is not that big. Cinema is not that big. Newspapers is not a Trillion-dollar industry. Neither is air travel, credit cards, advertising, music, pharmaceuticals, hotels, videogames, the coffee industry, etc. Imagine if you were there to be one of the big ‘barons’ of one of those industries when they were in ‘hypergrowth’ stage, you’d have retired rich today with probably universities, airports or even cities named after you…

Read the rest of How You Became Next Mogul in Mobile (and a Millionaire) at Communities Dominate Brands. Also, you might want to add a cup of coffee or tea and a sandwich for this one (the reply from Martin Geddes, then Tomi’s reply).

For something a bit shorter, but packing a similar punch, check out this interview of Tomi Ahonen over at Mobile Zeigeist.

 

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Difference Between Smartphones and Feature Phones

Monday, January 17th, 2011

N97 vs N8 Dial Screens - Share on OviIn a lead-up to reading the Tomi Ahonen Phone Book that we told you would be a good holiday wad/gift, also check out one of the latest posts at his site Communities Dominate Brands where he speaks about the differences between smartphones and feature phones. Here’s a snippet:

The PC industry sells a little over 300 million PCs this year. That includes all desktops, laptops, notebooks, netbooks and the tablet PCs like the iPad and Kindle. A little over 300 million sold per year. Similarly television sets sell in that scale, about 300 million per year. And DVD players sell in the 250 million range annually. These are the global giants in electronics, the others of our favorite gadgets, like videogaming consoles or digital cameras or MP3 players like the iPod, sell in far smaller numbers per year. Except for one gadget. The mobile phone. The world sees sales of 1.37 Billion mobile phones sold in just this past year! You see why I am so excited about this industry? Just smartphones alone will sell very close to 300 million units this year, and yes, next year more smartphones will be sold than all types of personal computers, combined.

Read the rest at Communities Dominate Brands.

We are going to work on doing a better job of addressing the difference in approaches when these two types of mobile devices are considered. Take for example the recent changes to the Mobile Bible Apps page, smartphones have gotten a good bit of attention, but there’s much more that can and should be done for feature phones (Java/Non-Smartphones). Stay tuned.

 

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7 Bits of Holiday Reading

Tuesday, December 21st, 2010

Dickens, The Life of Our Lord - image via Open LibraryFor as much as the holiday is great for family and rest, its also a good time to get some reading in. Here are a few items that have come in recently which might make for engaging reading and reflecting on a new or old mobile reading device:

Do you have some interesting reads that you will be engaging in this holiday season? Share yours in the comments or via Twitter.

 

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