Posts Tagged ‘metrics’

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Two Looks at the Context/Term ‘Advanced Mobile’

Friday, January 6th, 2012

Bubble_Chart_Top10_LargestTAMs, FlurryInitially, this post mentioned just the research and rankings by Tomi Ahonen; a later publication granted similar context with similar and different conclusions which combined with Ahonen’s insights grants considerable understanding towards current and future contexts of mobile on country levels. Therefore both of these are presented in a single post for relevance and compaative analysis.

Tomi Ahonen’s Ranking of Most Advanced Mobile Markets (by Country)
Tomi Ahonen (by virtue of his consultancy) tends to have all kinds of information which offer some measure of contextual relevance towards understanding mobile perspectices and trends. One of those that tends to cause all kinds of neat conversation has to do with his ranking of countries towards how advanced they are. He’s done this tanking for a few years (within his publications) and now offers this ranking again. Its not the most perfect (see the methodology quoted after the numbers, but should offer clear enough reasoning why approaching mobile from a “let’s evangelize the whole world at once approach” isn’t the best strategy.

Here’s his ranking (reformatted in a cleaner table layout):

Rank (2010) Country Index (%)
1 (1) Japan 91
2 (2) South Korea 89
3 (6T) Singapore 84
4 (3) Italy 83
5 (6T) Finland 82
6T (9) Sweden 81
6T (4T) Taiwan 81
8 (4T) Austria 80
9 (14) Hong Kong 79
10 (10T) Australia 78
11 (8) Israel 77
12 (10T) UK 76
13T (16T) Denmark 75
13T (15) Norway 75
13T (12) Spain 75
16 (22) UAE 73
17 (19) USA 72
18 (13) Ireland 71
19 (18) Netherlands 70
20 (16T) Germany 69

…This index is as far as I know, the only international comparative table that uses all the major metrics for the industry as inputs – ie I use the mobile phone penetration rate per capita, the migration rate to 3G networks, the adoption ie usage of mobile data (which typically is the adoption rate of SMS text messaging in most markets) and the measure of how advanced the handsets are in that country (which in most cases is the adoption rate of smartphones)…

*Emphasis ours

Read the rest of Tomi’s 2011 Mobile Phone Index Ranking posting.

Flurry’s Analysis of the Installed Base of Users for iOS and Android Devices
One of the most popular (and heard) metrics for ascertaining the relevance of mobile is to take a look at sales and activations numbers. And certainly these do have some redeeming value when looking at the “right now” action that is happening with mobile. However, concentrating on sales and activations misses the most signifiant statistic – how many devices are being used right now? And if there is only a percentage of those total sales or activations being used, what others kinds of information does this installed base give us that might better allow us to see the actual use of mobile, and the opportunities which might lie for mobile/mobile ministry endeavors?

The largest take on installed base research that I’ve seen to date seems to be this work compiled and recently published by Flurry.

Flurry validates their research by using several data points, most of which are available publically, and then cross-linking that against their metrics gained from the 140,000 applications which utilize their analytics software/services. Here’s a snippet of their report:

…Because this chart measures future potential, TAMs are much larger relative to active user bases.  The result, visually, is a lot more “light blue.”  Many of the world’s largest countries have largely un-penetrated markets, primarily due to standards of living (emerging markets) or increased competition for consumers’ disposable income (developed markets).  In either case, the TAM is there, but the adoption hasn’t yet occurred.  So, many of these markets are future bets with the time of maturity somewhat variable and unknown.  In this chart, the U.S. has both the largest current installed base and market upside.  Again, this is because of its unique, well-penetrated and large, affluent population.  Next China, given its very large population (1.3 billion), along with a growing middle class who has already begun adopting smart devices, has the world’s second largest market potential.  In comparison, even though India has the world’s second largest population (1.2 billion), its TAM is much smaller than China’s because of India’s very low standard of living.  The result is that, even though its total population is not far behind China’s, its total addressable market is.  Further, the adoption of smartphones and tablets among its TAM has been small.  Finally, Japan, the world’s fourth largest market, has a lot of upside given light penetration of iOS and Anroid devices against its large, addressable market..

Read the entire iOS/Android Installed Base report from Flurry

Takeaways/Conclusions
We titled this post Two Looks at the Context/Term ‘Advanced Mobile’ because the phrase finds itself often within conversations about mobile/mobile ministry. Being advanced is indeed one part functionality (Ahonen) and another part current/analyized use (Flurry). Aiming devices, services, and experiences to a mobile goal means that you have to keep in mind not just the trends (Ahonen) but also what’s happening that’s addressable. Aiming for smartphone users in the US makes sense because of the shape and prospects of the market. Using the same approach in Angola might not be a good bet. The context of what’s advanced mobility there or elsewhere has to seen in light of what’s actually happening.

Given the information above, shaping your mobile strategy for 2012 and beyond should be a good bit clearer.

 

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Distilling the Perspective of Prediction

Tuesday, January 3rd, 2012

image of Old Testament prophet, painting, via MormonInfo.orgIts the new year, and therefore time to hear and wade through all of the predictions for the coming year(s) in mobile. Well, there are some which are better than others, and definitely a means of weeding though it all. Here’s a snippet towards how I tend to walk through these statements:

I was passed a link via email recently which spoke (lightly) about smartphones in the coming years. I disagreed with the sentiment that it was a worthwhile prediction as the article-interview left no context behind the person’s statement. Still, I think it was a healthy exercise to pay attention to in the coming weeks as many will be predicting much, and there needs to be some way to get through the noise.

This is what was sent to me:
Marc Andreessen [speaks to CNet] about what the major technology trend(s) will be in 2012 & beyond. In a nutshell, it boils down to smartphones.

Read the rest of Distilling the Perspective of Prediction at Blog.AntoineRJWright.

Takeaways:

  • Anything that’s predicted in respect to technology can be easily fact-checked against news, stats, and other analysts in that position
  • Be wary of biases towards predicting what will/won’t come next. Bias is always present, sometimes its more influential than some would have you believe
  • Pull a Jeremiah 23 and just wait – if the word comes to pass, then observe them for future prognostigations; if not, don’t be ashamed to stop listening to them – I wouldn’t recommend throwing stones unless you have your ducks in a row

Now, that’s all easy to say when you have time to wade through the news, fact-check and such, but “who has time for all of that?” I would admonish you to be just as much a Berean in terms of news and views as you are of the Scriptures. Those following your activites in this life would gain much from your ability to take a stance and walk your way through understanding it.

 

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IBM’s 5 in 5 and Future Technological Disruptions Effecting Mobile Ministry

Wednesday, December 28th, 2011

It is that time of the year when predictions, resolutions, and trends-spotting makes the headline news. At the time of writing, I’m not sure that we’ll do too much (more) prophecying about mobile in ministry, but we will jump in with some of those putting forth some credible commentary towards activities, challenges, and advancements to come.

In this set of predictions, IBM looks at some technologies which are (definitely in development/testing now) which may play major roles in a majority of areas of society as we move foward in the next five years. This series, 5 in 5 has been done previously, and certainly deserves a look backward to see how accurate these proponents of a smarter planet have been in their views:

View all of the 5 in 5 videos on the IBM YouTube Channel

There are five aspects of technological/cultural change being talked about with 5 in 5:

  • Energy: People power will come to life
  • Security: You will never need a password again
  • Mind reading: Not just science fiction any more
  • Analytics: Junk mail will become priority mail
  • Access: Mobile is closing the Digital Divide

Read about these through the press release and blog posts from IBM which explain each of these in detail.

I’ve got my debates about the closing of the digital divide (it does, and then it doesn’t when actual costs are looked at), and think that we are well entrenched towards an analytical-driven future where recommendation engines and security becomes a more accepted norm of being in digital-enhanced spaced. The mind-reading is happening in kit projects now, that part will get fun (especially as AI and adaptive computing models become the norm).

I do wonder about the lack of seeing anything in these in respect to language and literacy, as I do think that we are getting into a time when language is no longer a barrier if connectivity is addressed (real-time, passive, and active translation protocols between service points). That’s just me though. I’m all aboard the energy idea (see my thoughts on kinetic energy for mobile accessories at Nokia’s Ideas Project). We definitely need to ditch the personal dependence on grid energy infrastructure, and make it more economical and environmentally sustainable in industrial applications. These are all addressable tennants of any mobile ministry efforts, and it would be nice to see this alongside other goals for mobile ministry.

What about you? Got thoughts on 5 in 5? You can also join in the global conversation about 5 in 5 via the following channels:

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts, and seeing just how you see internet/mobile ministry efforts going forward around and through these changes.

 

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How to Determine Your Audience for a Mobile App, Website, or Service

Thursday, November 10th, 2011

Ok, so you have decided that you will take the jump and build a mobile application or website. And in your analysis, you’ve pretty much established that you already know what kind of content it is that you will serve. So what’s left? Well, deciding who exactly to target your mobile efforts towards is one item. Take a look at this graphic recently produced by Asymco which speaks to the published information about global shipments of mobiles

From this graphic (not to mention the data that went into it) we can get an idea of some potential targets for an application or a website on a global scale. For example, we can see from the blue in the graphic that there’s a considerably larger percentage of persons who don’t use smartphones, though this number seems to be getting smaller on a consistent basis (you won’t hear doomsday analysis of the feature phone market here, the numbers bear this as standing strong for the foreseeable mobile futur – i.e., 3yrs easily).

Coming Down from a Global View to A Regional One

Now, this graphic only helps if you are thinking of rolling out something on a mobile global-reaching basis. For many of you, the reach is considerably more regional, and so information like that which Asymco has provided looks best when put against other data, for example, this information from the IDC:

…In Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) (APeJ), feature phones recovered in the third quarter on the back of Nokia’s resolved inventory channel issues in China combined with the strong showing of its dual-SIM handsets across emerging markets like India and Southeast Asia. With Nokia fighting back at the Chinese low-end competitors, the proliferation of these smaller brands has slowed as margins hit razor-thin levels. APeJ smartphone growth last quarter was driven primarily by Samsung and HTC, as well as ZTE in China. In Japan,the market rebounded sharply after two quarters of either low single-digit growth or outright market decline following the natural disasters of this spring.

The Western European phone market declined as a result of lower demand for both feature phones and smartphones. The smartphone device type growth was mainly driven by mid-tier Android devices. High-end smartphone growth was negatively impacted by Apple’s fourth-quarter iPhone 4S launch, which caused consumers to delay purchases. Meanwhile, Nokia’s transition from the Symbian to the Windows Phone operating system as its primary smartphone platform led to a transition. Feature phones declined as consumers that replaced their devices upgraded to smartphones while others held on to their devices for longer periods of time. Overall the Central Europe, Middle East and Africa (CEMA) markets showed strong growth due in large part to Nokia’s rebound in the regions. Bucking its global troubles, Nokia had a very strong 3Q11 due to feature phone growth. Its smartphone decline continued, however, but it remained the market leader in the region. Among the niche smartphone brands, HTC did particularly well in some markets, including Russia. RIM continues to make progress in the Middle East and Africa, but fared less well in Central and Eastern Europe…

Read the entire Q3 2011 IDC Press release

Now, this information from the IDC is a snapshot of what’s happening with the entire mobile industry (like Asymco’s data), however gives a more detailed snapshot of what’s happening in Q3 of this year compared to next year, and also considering regional and manufacturer differences. This is solid information, and allows an effort to craft a mobile website or application to center onto cultural and distribution details that are a bit easier to manage (languages, platform focusing, etc).

Identifying Opportunities, Tools, and Your Users

What’s left after this is to look a bit more into what it will take to actually build the mobile application or website. For that information, we have to take a look at a few facts: (a) where are the opportunities, (b) where are the tools, and (c) where are the users.

What are some of the opportunities for faith-based mobile apps, websites, and services?

  • Games
  • Funding (not just fundraising)
  • Group Communication
  • Education
  • Health and Wellness
  • News and Information

Or, what are the categories that see the most application downloads (this information is hard to come by, for example just Apple App Store data here; pulling this together requires some effort)?

Where then can we find some of the tools to take advantage of those opportunities?

Specifically Design for Your Specific User

And finally, we’ve got to define where the users are for our application. Not the mythical user. Not the “if we put an app out there, it will be used because they have a mobile” user. The hard numbers. Who in your communities, areas of influence, have expressed such interest in a mobile solution from you that it has effected the ability of your current media offerings to grow? Or, how has the success of mobile for your competitors/partners driven your customers and stakeholders to question your mobile strategy?

It is here that you will want to start researching your user base (or prospective user base) towards whatever mobile experience it is that you intend to craft. That doesn’t mean that you are designing something to please them (part of the effect of mobile is that you surprise and delight because you offer something people didn’t know they wanted), but it does mean that you have a pulse on what they use, what works, what doesn’t work, and where potential consumers of your mobile lie.

Analyzing your user base might mean digging into information that you already have (website visitor data, attendance data, response data from polls/surveys, etc.). And it also might mean that you need to generate means to learn more about your community (surveys, focus groups, feedback forms for events, etc.). But, you have to identify exactly who it is that will be using your applicaiton. Try creating personas for these specific users and then (before developing anything) testing the ideas that you have against them. Then, when you get to the point of testing and looking for feedback to your application, you have some benchmark against which to determine where you proceed with your mobile activity.

Of course, you don’t have to do this work of figuring out your audience. You could very well be the next Steve Jobs and literally have a intuition towards what will work. You also have to have the discipline to make sure that it does work.

Resources, Encouragement
We have some resources that should help you through this process here. But, as we noted above with looking at your users, much of what you need to know about making a successful mobile applicaiton, website, or service is already within the people you serve. Know them, and you know what works.

 

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Tyndale Church and Technology Infographic

Monday, November 7th, 2011
Tyndale Church and Tech Infographic

Click to view full sized

 

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Siine Writer and UI Design for Mixed Media Resources

Sunday, October 16th, 2011

For a number of years, we’ve been talking about how Bible applications need to do a better job of addressing the non-pastorial perspective for their applications. We’ve talked about both content and the over all user experience, but rarely have we been able to do more than just instigate more chrome, rounded corners, or a faster search. Almost non of the Bible applications currently available take into consideration the fact that there are more people who own and use mobile devices than those that can read (by stat: the Orality Network speaks that about 60% of the world is or chooses to be illerate; there are nearly 55% of the world’s population that has a mobile phone* (hardware, not account) – overlap, not symmetry).

When looking at Siine Writer and its approach to creating a keyboard that’s based around iconography, I smiled because there seemed to be some develoeprs/UI designers who get it – on a mobile device, context-tuned entry is more powerful the less the user has to do to invent the context they are inputting.

So here’s your challenge. You have a library of resources, and don’t have the time to go about creating read-first interfaces that respect every language you are trying to reach. Can you create instead an icon (and color pallete) driven approach that is better able to lead towards that expected experince that person should have towards your application? Do you know the context of those whom you are building this solution for to do this? Or, does your mobile ministry approach need to start more with analysis of the people group, leaving you less time to make mistakes or do extra work?

If you are looking to build or deploy updates to your Bible/Bible-related applications for more than just the 120 or so trade languages, I’d encourage you to take a look at Siine Writer, accessibility best practices (for example, IBM’s listing), and even conversations that designers and others have about icongraphy and culture. Speaking from experience, its very hard to create interfaces that convey meaning when you are used to letters, words, and phrases to do so. However, the Bible, and specifically its application into how it is applied today, endears us to have to consider context just as much as we’d consider content.

For those of you already thinking and working down this path, here’s a recent tweet with some links to icons, icon galleries, and icon design practices that should add to your efforts:

Khoi Vinh (@khoi) – Helpful replies to my earlier tweet about icons: iconfinder.com, iconspedia.com and a post at Owltastic. Thanks everyone.

~ Siine Writer found via Ubergizmo & Techcrunch

*Update: got a question via email about the 55% number. That data is in the ITU datasets. However, it was also published by Tomi Ahonen in Feb 2011.

 

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How Do You Learn About Your Mobile-Enabled Audience?

Wednesday, September 28th, 2011

Pulling out another question from a recent conversation with a few potential clients for open conversation:

When you are looking to connect your ministry opportunity with a mobile solution, what do you do in order to learn about your mobile-enabled audience?

Real simple. Let’s hear from you.

 

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Global Mobile Industry – First Half 2011 Assessment by Chetan Sharma

Thursday, July 7th, 2011

…In Q1 2011, US became the first major market to exceed the 50% mark in smartphone sales. The global figure stands at approximately 26%. Some operators expect 90% of their devices sales to be smartphones by the end of the year. In terms of the actual smartphone penetration, we expect the US market to eclipse the 50% mark in 2012.

China leads in the number of subs but US dominates in both total and data revenue. A number of emerging nations are now in top 10 – Brazil, India, Russia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico while once dominant – Korea, UK, Italy, Germany have dropped off or slipped in rankings.

The number of mobile operators with more than $1B in data revenues will increase to 47 in 2011. This number was only at 13 in 2005.

Japan continues to be the leader in mobile data with NTT DoCoMo, KDDI, and Softbank Japan ahead of the pack in terms of mobile data revenue and data as a % of total ARPU. In 2011, it became the first major market to have more than 50% of its mobile revenue from data services. Next, Australia and the US have made good inroads in the last two years. In fact, if we look at the overall data revenue, US is much further ahead than any nation due to the size of the market.

While India has the highest subscriber growth rate in the world right now, the revenue generating opportunity remain down right anemic compared to other major markets with average dropping down to $3.50 in overall ARPU. Even with significant subscriber base, there is going to be a general lack of opportunity in the market for the next couple of years relative to other markets…

Read the rest of Chetan Sharma’s Global Mobile Industry – First Half 2011 Assessment at the website (just a summary) or by downloading the PDF (56pgs).

You can also catch up with Chetan Sharma and many others at the upcoming Mobile Future Forward conference.

 

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The Casualty of Symbian Bible Apps

Monday, May 16th, 2011

In a lot of respects, its rare to talk about Bible apps for one specific platform – there so many – the causality of Bible apps for the Symbian platform has been one of those questions that has gnawed at me a bit. Not so much even for the lack of applications, but the missed opportunities because of where the Symbian platform has been represented.

What is Symbian?

Symbian is a mobile operating system and platform that’s been used by Nokia, Samsung, Motorola, Fujitsu, and LG for mobile phones. To date, there have been over 600 million devices shipped and sold with the Symbian operating system, making it one of the most prolific  in use.

Nokia has been quite adept at making Symbian fit its needs. It has pretty much been selling Symbian devices longer than people have given credence to there even being a category called smartphones. To that end, Symbian has been deployed with more carriers and in more world  regions than all but the most basic of Java handsets.

Unfortunately, it is also considered an older platform that while stable and optimized for mobile devices, falls quite far behind some of the newer entrants in respect to ease-of-use, developer tools, and ease of finding applications. And so Symbian recently befell Nokia’s reorganization efforts (first spun into an open source platform, and now to be greatly minimized  over the next years  to be replaced by Windows Phone).

Symbian and Bibles

By accident of niche, Biblical software usually is a fairly easy one to fill. Find a publisher that has the languages that you want to address, write the application to deliver it, and then make it available. The issue with Symbian is that its actually a pretty difficult platform to build on. Without getting too technical, its just plain to say that developers have needed to had a certain type of older technical knowledge (previously) or invest in toolsets (Qt, Java, etc.) which required a good amount of patience before progress.

When I moved to the Symbian platform in 2008, there wasn’t much to find for Bible apps. Laridian, Olive Tree, Symbian Bible, and Go-Bible were pretty much your only options. And for a while, this was just fine and covered most of the Symbian devices that were in existence. When Symbian went to a touch-based user interface (UI), things got a lot fragmented, and Symbian Bible pretty much became the only option (Best eBible came on the scene later). Which was good and not good – a free application, using Bibles formatted for the Palm Bible+ application, and had no support for newer translations. Newer platforms ended up with a very easy “in” for adoption, they had what people could read, and could find.

A Missed Opportunity…

In light of all of that history, its easy to say that Symbian (and the companies associated with that platform) might have missed an opportunity to take a platform that has already made considerable inroads even further. But, it had a good bit going against it, and so it is now in the position it is in.

But does that mean that all potential opportunity for this platform have been lost? I’d say no, if technical aptitude is seen as a gift that can benefit the Body. When I say technical aptitude, a platform (like Symbian, but all qualify here) benefits by such knowledge as developer tools, device interfaces, language mapping, usage analytics, etc. A person who is skilled in any of these areas would be a suitable team member for a larger project creating an application, service, or refining a digital faith experience. These persons have to be looked for in “not normal places” as their gift isn’t something you’d find in Exodus on the way to creating a mobile altar (Exodus 25-27).

There’s also the benefit of much of Symbian’s assets being made available in open forums (for example Forum Nokia), through some open source technologies (for example Qt), and through the continued ownership of Symbian devices (installed-based analysis by Vision Mobile). In effect, there’s a lot of folks out there who can still benefit from a Bible solution on this platform.

The Lesson for Other Mobile Platforms

It is easy for the market, and popular (loud) opinion to state where you should place your development resources. Certainly, making plans for mobile software you’ve got to take into account devices, services, and experiences (the entire frame of mobile) and what is currently and what will be in the years to come.

When it comes to religious software, you also have the opportunity to always tap into the installed base of current users. Many times, your frequent fans and users of digital faith items will not splurge on the latest devices or services, though they will want to receive some of the same experiences that newer devices offer. It is in this that the opportunity lies, and where its possible to not just make a product, but help drive older platforms to a friendlier sunset.

Currently, there are several mobile platforms that have come and gone (Epoc, PalmOS, Windows Mobile), and some that are pretty much on their last legs (Symbian, older versions of Android and iOS, RIM’s BB OS 6 and earlier). Developers looking to cut their teeth on a mobile platform to learn and to provide experiences should not forget these platforms. And at the same time, you should go into any project with a clear (and simple) goal and definitive timeline. You  will not be able to support those devices for very long when the official support has faded.

Lastly, when you are a platform that has cultured a community of content, but you are no longer able to support that platform, utilize the open code and support communities of Code.Google, Forum Nokia, SourceForge, GitHub, and others as places to put your code and release notes. There might be someone willing to take up the project, or at least help you migrate your project’s contents into a newer platform. For example, MMM participated in an effort to update the Rapier Bible application for Maemo 5 devices, fixing some linger bugs, but that also set the stage to develop (and later release into widespread testing) a Bible application written in Qt from the ground up called Katana. The rewritten application leans on lessons of the former, but has a much longer viable life because of decisions made early on to support certain content and programming hooks.

For Symbian, it may very well be the case that the sun is setting for it as a leading mobile platform. It is also the case that there are some years and various regions of users that still haven’t been served with digital faith content though having a platform capable of supporting it. Do keep that in mind as you consider your mobile strategies, and remember to study the past platforms for what is probably going to happen to many others in a nearer-than-you-can-expect future.

 

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