Archive for the ‘Future Trends’ Category

Two Looks at the Context/Term ‘Advanced Mobile’

Friday, January 6th, 2012

Bubble_Chart_Top10_LargestTAMs, FlurryInitially, this post mentioned just the research and rankings by Tomi Ahonen; a later publication granted similar context with similar and different conclusions which combined with Ahonen’s insights grants considerable understanding towards current and future contexts of mobile on country levels. Therefore both of these are presented in a single post for relevance and compaative analysis.

Tomi Ahonen’s Ranking of Most Advanced Mobile Markets (by Country)
Tomi Ahonen (by virtue of his consultancy) tends to have all kinds of information which offer some measure of contextual relevance towards understanding mobile perspectices and trends. One of those that tends to cause all kinds of neat conversation has to do with his ranking of countries towards how advanced they are. He’s done this tanking for a few years (within his publications) and now offers this ranking again. Its not the most perfect (see the methodology quoted after the numbers, but should offer clear enough reasoning why approaching mobile from a “let’s evangelize the whole world at once approach” isn’t the best strategy.

Here’s his ranking (reformatted in a cleaner table layout):

Rank (2010) Country Index (%)
1 (1) Japan 91
2 (2) South Korea 89
3 (6T) Singapore 84
4 (3) Italy 83
5 (6T) Finland 82
6T (9) Sweden 81
6T (4T) Taiwan 81
8 (4T) Austria 80
9 (14) Hong Kong 79
10 (10T) Australia 78
11 (8) Israel 77
12 (10T) UK 76
13T (16T) Denmark 75
13T (15) Norway 75
13T (12) Spain 75
16 (22) UAE 73
17 (19) USA 72
18 (13) Ireland 71
19 (18) Netherlands 70
20 (16T) Germany 69

…This index is as far as I know, the only international comparative table that uses all the major metrics for the industry as inputs – ie I use the mobile phone penetration rate per capita, the migration rate to 3G networks, the adoption ie usage of mobile data (which typically is the adoption rate of SMS text messaging in most markets) and the measure of how advanced the handsets are in that country (which in most cases is the adoption rate of smartphones)…

*Emphasis ours

Read the rest of Tomi’s 2011 Mobile Phone Index Ranking posting.

Flurry’s Analysis of the Installed Base of Users for iOS and Android Devices
One of the most popular (and heard) metrics for ascertaining the relevance of mobile is to take a look at sales and activations numbers. And certainly these do have some redeeming value when looking at the “right now” action that is happening with mobile. However, concentrating on sales and activations misses the most signifiant statistic – how many devices are being used right now? And if there is only a percentage of those total sales or activations being used, what others kinds of information does this installed base give us that might better allow us to see the actual use of mobile, and the opportunities which might lie for mobile/mobile ministry endeavors?

The largest take on installed base research that I’ve seen to date seems to be this work compiled and recently published by Flurry.

Flurry validates their research by using several data points, most of which are available publically, and then cross-linking that against their metrics gained from the 140,000 applications which utilize their analytics software/services. Here’s a snippet of their report:

…Because this chart measures future potential, TAMs are much larger relative to active user bases.  The result, visually, is a lot more “light blue.”  Many of the world’s largest countries have largely un-penetrated markets, primarily due to standards of living (emerging markets) or increased competition for consumers’ disposable income (developed markets).  In either case, the TAM is there, but the adoption hasn’t yet occurred.  So, many of these markets are future bets with the time of maturity somewhat variable and unknown.  In this chart, the U.S. has both the largest current installed base and market upside.  Again, this is because of its unique, well-penetrated and large, affluent population.  Next China, given its very large population (1.3 billion), along with a growing middle class who has already begun adopting smart devices, has the world’s second largest market potential.  In comparison, even though India has the world’s second largest population (1.2 billion), its TAM is much smaller than China’s because of India’s very low standard of living.  The result is that, even though its total population is not far behind China’s, its total addressable market is.  Further, the adoption of smartphones and tablets among its TAM has been small.  Finally, Japan, the world’s fourth largest market, has a lot of upside given light penetration of iOS and Anroid devices against its large, addressable market..

Read the entire iOS/Android Installed Base report from Flurry

Takeaways/Conclusions
We titled this post Two Looks at the Context/Term ‘Advanced Mobile’ because the phrase finds itself often within conversations about mobile/mobile ministry. Being advanced is indeed one part functionality (Ahonen) and another part current/analyized use (Flurry). Aiming devices, services, and experiences to a mobile goal means that you have to keep in mind not just the trends (Ahonen) but also what’s happening that’s addressable. Aiming for smartphone users in the US makes sense because of the shape and prospects of the market. Using the same approach in Angola might not be a good bet. The context of what’s advanced mobility there or elsewhere has to seen in light of what’s actually happening.

Given the information above, shaping your mobile strategy for 2012 and beyond should be a good bit clearer.

 

Distilling the Perspective of Prediction

Tuesday, January 3rd, 2012

image of Old Testament prophet, painting, via MormonInfo.orgIts the new year, and therefore time to hear and wade through all of the predictions for the coming year(s) in mobile. Well, there are some which are better than others, and definitely a means of weeding though it all. Here’s a snippet towards how I tend to walk through these statements:

I was passed a link via email recently which spoke (lightly) about smartphones in the coming years. I disagreed with the sentiment that it was a worthwhile prediction as the article-interview left no context behind the person’s statement. Still, I think it was a healthy exercise to pay attention to in the coming weeks as many will be predicting much, and there needs to be some way to get through the noise.

This is what was sent to me:
Marc Andreessen [speaks to CNet] about what the major technology trend(s) will be in 2012 & beyond. In a nutshell, it boils down to smartphones.

Read the rest of Distilling the Perspective of Prediction at Blog.AntoineRJWright.

Takeaways:

  • Anything that’s predicted in respect to technology can be easily fact-checked against news, stats, and other analysts in that position
  • Be wary of biases towards predicting what will/won’t come next. Bias is always present, sometimes its more influential than some would have you believe
  • Pull a Jeremiah 23 and just wait – if the word comes to pass, then observe them for future prognostigations; if not, don’t be ashamed to stop listening to them – I wouldn’t recommend throwing stones unless you have your ducks in a row

Now, that’s all easy to say when you have time to wade through the news, fact-check and such, but “who has time for all of that?” I would admonish you to be just as much a Berean in terms of news and views as you are of the Scriptures. Those following your activites in this life would gain much from your ability to take a stance and walk your way through understanding it.

 

2012 Resolution #1: An App is Not A Strategy

Monday, January 2nd, 2012

Welcome to 2012 and Mobile Ministry Magazine (MMM). Since 2004, we’ve talked a lot about this intersection of faith and mobile technology and how this has often looked like applications. We’ve talked about the good and bad about these applications, what has improved, and what still isn’t being touched. And yet there’s there is a pervasive resolution that I think you should endear to any mobile ministry efforts for 2012: an application is not a strategy.

We’ll summarize how we come to such a conclusion in this article. Some of these concepts have been covered before, other parts not yet in enough depth to give you a means to continue. But don’t worry, as we encourage you to step into 2012 with your mobile ministry efforts, the goal of this article is that you address mobile ministry as a spoke in a larger wheel of your efforts, no matter where you are in the chain.

This article focuses specifically on these points:

  • What is Mobile Ministry?
  • What are the specific areas in which mobile has addressed a ministry context?
  • Is there anything consistently applicable across those areas of mobile ministry?
  • If applications are part of the solution, what else is there?
  • What are some resources for applying these points?

What is Mobile Ministry

Mobile ministry is the application of mobile devices, services, and/or experiences for the purposes of forwarding ideals and characteristics of a faith movement.

Mobile computing has a market-led definition (portable, cellular and/or WiFi-enabled computing devices which have screen sizes between 2.2 and 5in, and have some form of primary input that is not mediated by accessory-attached mice/keyboards). We take the stance that mobile computing devices can include any portable computer that is not designed specifically as a clothing accessory.

Mobile services include, but are not limited singular applications of cellular (voice, data, SMS, multimedia), Internet (browsing, email, IM, VoIP, Wi-Fi, GPS), and applications (including the tools to create and distribute, API structures/protocols, development standards/practices, etc.). 

Ministry is defined as any activity which forwards the ideals and characteristics of a faith movement, that may be personally motivated, community organized, and/or governmentally implemented.

This definiton is intentionally not grounded on any one religion/faith, and has been [slightly] refined from its more academic-correct beginnings. Discussions towards refining this further should be a part of any conversations brokering mobile as useful in ministry contexts.

Specific Areas of Ministry Applied in Mobile
Over the course of seven years, MMM has observed six specific applications of mobile technology within ministry contexts. This doesn’t mean that there are not, or could not be others. Within these six areas, we have identified unique approaches combining devices, services, and/or experiences which create avenues for personal, media, and cultural transformation through faith-binding activities.

These six areas are as follows:

We will further define and illustrate these areas throughout 2012. Please refer to former articles and presentations on this subject in order to see some of the progression of these ideas. We will endeavor to link to articles tagged with these topics in order to best consolidate the discussion on this site towards these points.

Layers of Mobile
We are careful not to simply define mobile in the context of devices or development. There are three components which encompass the mobile environment which all need to be considered and included within the context that is mobile computing:

  • Devices
  • Services
  • Experiences

We will further define these areas beyond our initial exploration of these throughout 2012. Please refer this article/document for a direct linking to that discussion.

Applications and Beyond
It should be clear within what we’ve explained so far that defining mobile ministry strictly or specifically in the context of downloadable applications is incomplete. Applications are only a part of the usable toolkit for mobile within ministry endeavors. Streams in which mobile can be developed/sold/applied within ministry contexts include:

  • Software Applications
  • Hardware Applications
  • Voice Services
  • Video/Audio (Streaming, Downloads, Sharing, etc.)
  • Text (SMS, language transcription, etc.)
  • Downloadable/Streaming Media (APIs, content libraries, etc.)
  • Mixed Media (creation, distribution, specifications, etc.)
  • Security
  • Reporting
  • Personalization

We will further define these areas throughout 2012. 

Resources for Moving Forward

Conclusions: An App is not a Strategy, But…
We will not debate the point that for many endeavors, the first door that mobile will open is that through an application store. However, the first door seen is not the only door available. Depending on what it is you are developing, offering, or enabling, an application might not be the best point of entry. 

For 2012, consider your opportunities and challenges within ministry, and whether mobile is the best route. If it is, then you will want to start looking at where you sit in terms of those areas of mobile, and then whether you are targeting devices, building a service, or managing an experience. After that point, it becomes clear how you should approach mobile. It may very well be that you do need an application – but now it will have a specific target, you can begin planning and setting up your team and content appropriately. If it means you need to outsource the development of your mobile solution, you do so with knowledge of more than simply “make it work on this device.” 

At the intersection of faith and mobile technology, what are you pointing towards? In 2010, don’t let your strategy (or lack of one) turn mobile into a dead-end for your effort.

 

IBM’s 5 in 5 and Future Technological Disruptions Effecting Mobile Ministry

Wednesday, December 28th, 2011

It is that time of the year when predictions, resolutions, and trends-spotting makes the headline news. At the time of writing, I’m not sure that we’ll do too much (more) prophecying about mobile in ministry, but we will jump in with some of those putting forth some credible commentary towards activities, challenges, and advancements to come.

In this set of predictions, IBM looks at some technologies which are (definitely in development/testing now) which may play major roles in a majority of areas of society as we move foward in the next five years. This series, 5 in 5 has been done previously, and certainly deserves a look backward to see how accurate these proponents of a smarter planet have been in their views:

View all of the 5 in 5 videos on the IBM YouTube Channel

There are five aspects of technological/cultural change being talked about with 5 in 5:

  • Energy: People power will come to life
  • Security: You will never need a password again
  • Mind reading: Not just science fiction any more
  • Analytics: Junk mail will become priority mail
  • Access: Mobile is closing the Digital Divide

Read about these through the press release and blog posts from IBM which explain each of these in detail.

I’ve got my debates about the closing of the digital divide (it does, and then it doesn’t when actual costs are looked at), and think that we are well entrenched towards an analytical-driven future where recommendation engines and security becomes a more accepted norm of being in digital-enhanced spaced. The mind-reading is happening in kit projects now, that part will get fun (especially as AI and adaptive computing models become the norm).

I do wonder about the lack of seeing anything in these in respect to language and literacy, as I do think that we are getting into a time when language is no longer a barrier if connectivity is addressed (real-time, passive, and active translation protocols between service points). That’s just me though. I’m all aboard the energy idea (see my thoughts on kinetic energy for mobile accessories at Nokia’s Ideas Project). We definitely need to ditch the personal dependence on grid energy infrastructure, and make it more economical and environmentally sustainable in industrial applications. These are all addressable tennants of any mobile ministry efforts, and it would be nice to see this alongside other goals for mobile ministry.

What about you? Got thoughts on 5 in 5? You can also join in the global conversation about 5 in 5 via the following channels:

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts, and seeing just how you see internet/mobile ministry efforts going forward around and through these changes.

 

No Longer the Age of Bible Apps, Now the Age of Bible As Applied

Monday, November 21st, 2011

A friend and I were talking about a project he and his company were working on and while it was great that they were working on it, I had to be direct and ask him, “why are you building another Bible applicaiton?” According to he and his team, having a Bible application would put them on equal footing with other companies in this space who have applications and have (apparently) made the successful transition from a PC-based product model to a mobile/web-based one.

I shook my head at his flawed logic. “You don’t run to where the puck is, you run to where it would be,” I told him (quoting Wayne Gretzky). The problem with their approach, and many within this mobile ministry (#mobmin) space who are looking for their innovative solution to take the religious world/church/tech world by storm, is that they keep looking to copying current products in order to make a dent or shift in perception. That’s just not how this works.

For this group, I asked why didn’t they go the route that other Bible applicaiton companies haven’t gone, but that very few secular companies would dare go: the Boston Globe/Boston responsive web, subscription web approach (several articles talked about this)? He looked at me with disdain, as he heard some about that project, but didn’t know how far reaching that it went. You see, their team is savy enough to build something like that, but their company isn’t visionary enough to figure out why that works.

Hence the title of this article: the age of bible applications is over; it is now the age of bible as applied in digital spaces.

Am I saying that there is no need for any company to create, recreate, or innovate on top of the paradigm of reading, searching, bookmarking, and collections with Bible apps? No. But, I am saying that if you are a content publisher who bases your content on any of those Bible app paradigms, then you are better off pushing your energies towards developing a product somewhere else besides “let start with a Bible app.”

Antoine: you aren’t even a developer, how can you say such things?

Easy actually. Go have a conversation with someone. Tell me, did you start in the Bible or was the conversation dipping in and out of the Bible at various points with other contexts as the backbone to the conversation? I’ll address a recent conversation from a coffeeshop. The pastor/missionary and I started talking because I asked about his wide-margin NASB that he was carrying. The conversation went into church history quickly from that, then into cultural perspectives of various regions of the USA. Would a Bible app have helped there, or an application that was able to search on topics related to church history which also referenced Bible verses, noted authors, theological paradigms, and denominational statements of faith that added context to the situation. Of course, innovation here would be turning on said app while in the conversation and as it “listened” it would pull a Google/Britiannica/Wikipedia/Wolfgram Alpha and search then display all of the relevant content streams, statistics, and opinions available online or in accessible scholarly collections. If you will a Shazamm for Biblical conversations.

It prbably makes sense why I can say that you can bend beyond Bible applications when I phrase the context like that right? But that’s called research and analysis, specifically, anlaysis of cultural behaviors of communication that rarely go into the development of these kinds of applications (this is how reports like Mobile Lens 2011 were framed). And that’s why we end up with a situation such as what I described with my friend at the start of this article. If you want your product(s) to be of earthly good, then you have to move beyond the age of simply offering just the text. Develop an app that engages the application of Biblical (religious) knowledge first, and then grounds the user in a growing (maturing) understanding of Scripture, church history, and culture as they grow in faith and knowledge.

Anyone want to bet on “Bible as Applied” being the space in which faith-based/religious apps show the most potential for growth in the coming years against simply offering the text in increasingly siloed services?

 

How Do You Learn About Your Mobile-Enabled Audience?

Wednesday, September 28th, 2011

Pulling out another question from a recent conversation with a few potential clients for open conversation:

When you are looking to connect your ministry opportunity with a mobile solution, what do you do in order to learn about your mobile-enabled audience?

Real simple. Let’s hear from you.

 

Merging the Tech Windows of a Biblical Expereince

Thursday, September 8th, 2011

I am fast to say that there are aspects of mobile/web/connected technologies that make sense towards engaging and being transformed by the Bible or other texts. But, the experience is always layered. There’s the device… the moment… the software… the text/audio… what window can I engage it in at that given that that will enable me to put my entire being in that Joshua 1:8 state?

And then I looked at this and smiled:

Now, this is a video demonstrating various technologies available and in use right now (XBox Kinect, Microsoft Surface, Windows 7 on a tablet, Windows Phone 7, email, IM, SMS, optical recognition technologies, etc.). But, it gets me excited because its not beyond anything that many of us have in our homes in whole or in part towards taking that “get in the Bible” experience and pushing it a bit more.

Let’s reframe the video a bit see what I mean:

  • You see in the beginning that small group IM/SMS session that’s going on? That could very easily be your small (cell) group and a conversation that’s happening amongst them.
  • The blueprint you see overlaid could be the entire Bible, or more specifically the sermon outline with some identifiers to Bible, commentaries, Wikipedia/Britannica, and web search entries that further expand the central them (the room being a theme, the rooms being the explorations of those themes)
  • Now, the key here is that there’s not a layer to the communication aspects. Some might be in the same room using an XBox Kinect to “see” the same experience, but others might be using voice only, mobiles, tablets, or some combination to engage the discussion.
  • Love that part where “Bill” takes us into the master bedroom. Can that be the “taking us into a tour of the temple?” Going a bit further than Glo Bible (a well done app experience I might add) of showing pictures, but we get a virtual room of the building and the people in that context.
  • That end result, changing the door handle and adding a lamp, what happens when we are in a room (world) and we add a door or light to the environment?

Several weeks ago, my aunt and I were talking about an iPad and I shifted the discussion to what she would think of as the perfect Bible app. She responded to something like this video and our reframing – a visual and audio tour through the world of the Bible, but it connects to the physical world so that you could get a literal learning of the text and more readily apply the lesson.

If you are a pastor or lesson leader, could you get along with merging things like this? If so, do you think some of this is possible right now with what you have on your desk, in your pocket, or even, in your family room?

video via istartedsomething

 

The Bible in a Technological Age by Bobby Gruenwald

Tuesday, September 6th, 2011

Coming off an extended holiday weekend (for those of us in the USA), its great to have a video like this one from Bobby Gruenwald (LifeChurch.TV) at Q to help reset our perceptions towards the interesection of faith and technology and what our response to life and environment (context) can look around it.

Note: I’ll embed this in when I’m able to get the direct link to the video; Q doesn’t give me a direct URL to embed here.